Leaders Online: India Meteorological Department (IMD) has given good news regarding monsoon. This year's monsoon season will see more than average rainfall. This year, compared to the Long Period Average (LPA), there is a possibility of 106 percent rainfall (there may be a difference of 5 percent less or more), according to the Meteorological Department.
El Niño weak
Currently, El Nino conditions are moderate in the equatorial Pacific region. Forecasts from the New Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) as well as other climate models indicate that the El Niño condition is likely to further weaken to a neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condition during the early monsoon season. The Meteorological Department has said that La Nina conditions are likely to develop in the second half of the monsoon season.
Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences M. “This spring, the Northern Hemisphere snowpack was below normal,” Ravicharanan said on Monday. It is inversely related to southwest monsoon ie monsoon. Due to this, more than normal rainfall is expected.”
What about Skymet?
This year, monsoon will remain normal in the country. Skymet, a meteorological agency, had recently predicted that there would be average rainfall in the four months from June to September. The monsoon season was said to be 102 percent (5 percent plus-minus margin). Average rainfall is considered to mean good rainfall. Rainfall between 96 to 104 percent is considered average or satisfactory by the Meteorological Department. Such rainfall is considered good for crops as well as other water needs. The average for the four-month rainy season from June to September will be 868.6 mm. Skymet had said that there will be good rain in 23 states including Maharashtra.
'La Nina' will return
Last year, an 'El Nino' situation was created in the Pacific Ocean. This affected the monsoon. Last year, the amount of rain remained low. Also, warm weather remained in winter. But now many weather organizations around the world have predicted the return of 'La Nina' in the coming monsoon season. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APCC) Climate Center has predicted India's first monsoon this year. The Center had issued two separate weather forecasts for April to June and July to September. (Monsoon in India)
According to this forecast, the country is likely to experience above normal monsoon season from July to September. This forecast change is attributed to the recent ENSO alert; Which predicts El Niño to La Niña conditions.
IMD predicts 2024 southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole to be above normal (>104% of the Long Period Average (LPA)). Seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%. LPA of monsoon rainfall (1971-2020) is 87 cm. pic.twitter.com/bgBhLX0M2W
— India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) April 15, 2024
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