Thursday, May 23, 2024

Monsoon Forecast | Big news! Early arrival of Monsoon this year, date given by IMD

Leaders Online Desk: Southwest Monsoon is likely to enter South Andaman Sea, parts of Southeast Bay of Bengal and Nicobar Islands on May 19. Monsoon generally enters the region between 19th May. But the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted on Monday that the arrival of monsoon will be early this year.

Monsoon generally enters Kerala around June 1; After that it starts its journey towards north. By July 15, it covers the entire country. It is estimated that monsoon will rain strongly in the country this year. The India Meteorological Department has already predicted that the country will receive 106 percent more than average rainfall in the four months from June 1 to September 30.

This monsoon season will have more than average rainfall. This year, compared to the Long Period Average (LPA), there is a possibility of 106 percent rainfall (there may be a difference of 5 percent less or more), according to the forecast released earlier by the Meteorological Department.

Currently, El Nino conditions are moderate in the equatorial Pacific region. Forecasts from the New Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) as well as other climate models indicate that the El Niño condition is likely to further weaken to a neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condition during the early monsoon season. According to the Meteorological Department, La Nina conditions are likely to develop during the second half of the monsoon season.

What does Skymet's forecast say?

This year, monsoon will remain normal in the country. Skymet, a private weather agency, had earlier predicted that there would be average rainfall in the four months from June to September. The monsoon season was said to be 102 percent (5 percent plus-minus margin). Average rainfall is considered to mean good rainfall. Rainfall between 96 to 104 percent is considered average or satisfactory by the Meteorological Department. Such rainfall is considered good for crops as well as other water needs. The average for the four-month rainy season from June to September will be 868.6 mm. Skymet had said that there will be good rain in 23 states including Maharashtra.

It will rain this year

Last year, an 'El Nino' ​​situation was created in the Pacific Ocean. This had an adverse effect on the monsoon. Last year, the amount of rain remained minimal. Also, warm weather remained in winter. But now many weather organizations around the world have predicted the return of 'La Nina' in the coming monsoon season. This can lead to misty rain.

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