Saturday, November 23, 2024

Indian stock market at a historic stage


Bharat Salokhe, Director, Akshay Profit & Wealth Pvt. Ltd.

Nifty hit a high of 23110.80 on 27th May, a weekly low of 22417 on 30th May and finally closed at 22530.70 by the end of the week! That means the entire week was spent in a 600 point ups and downs. Friday, Monthly expiry was also on 31st May. Hence, on a full month basis, the Nifty fell by only half a percent. That is only a recession of 110 points!

Since the results of the Lok Sabha elections are on June 4, Tuesday, this volatility in the market in the face of the results comes naturally. If it is seen that, than the investors or traders, the so-called market experts on business channels or YouTube have been going on for the last month, instead of giving proper knowledge to the investors, these market experts were either tempting them with big profit or showing the fear of market crash.

Fluctuations in the market due to elections, natural calamities are temporary. The market continues to rise due to the growth in share prices and the share prices rise due to the earnings and future growth of the companies. For example, NCC, a construction company, presented its financial results on May 15. 30 percent revenue growth on a YOY basis, seventeen and a half percent increase in operating income, and 25 percent increase in net profit! This happened about Future Growth of Strong Earnings Company! So, the company has work orders worth Rs 57536 crore and further work orders of Rs 20 to 22,000 crore are expected. What else can be said about the future of a company that has such a huge work order book?
Along with NCC, also check financial results of Krsnaa Diagnostics, STS Enterprises.
In contrast, Tata Steel's net profit fell 65 percent to Rs 554.6 crore.

India's core sector grew at 6.2 percent in April 2024 from 6 percent in March 2024. Core Sector includes eight sectors namely Coal, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Minerals, Fertilizers, Steel, Cement and Electricity. The Core Sector has a share of 40.27 percent in the IITs of the country (Index of industrial production).

NSE launched India's first Electric Vehicle Index. It will be called The Nifty EV & New Age Automotive. The new index will include companies that manufacture electric vehicles, companies that make their parts, as well as IT companies related to the electric vehicle industry, chemical companies, capital goods companies, oil and gas companies, and consumer services companies. The top ten companies in this index and their weightage in order of weightage are as follows:

1) Bajaj Auto 7.08 %
2) Tata Motors 6.49 %
3) Mahindra and Mahindra 5.83 %
4) Maruti Suzuki 5.28 %
5) Exide Industries 4.78 %
6) Bosch 4.56 %
7) Conservation Motherson International 4.45 %
8) Eicher Motors 4.42 %
9) CG Power 4.30 %
10) Himadri Specialty Chemicals 4.28 %

Two positive developments from the Indian stock market's perspective, the first is that India's GDP grew by 7.8 percent in the January-March 2024 quarter, as against 6.2 percent in the previous year. Another is that S & P Global Ratings upgraded India's rating from Stable to Positive after ten years. This status was changed due to macroeconomic reforms and fiscal discipline. S&P has projected India's GDP growth for the next five years as follows.

Year 2024 – 7.6 %
Year 2025 – 6.8 %
Year 2026 – 6.9 %
Year 2027 – 7.0 %
Year 2028 – 7.0 %

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